For an individual buyer the answer is set by how long you will stay and whether the payment works, not by the market: the honest market signals are how long homes are sitting, how many sellers have already cut their price, and how much is for sale, and all three are published below for the market we cover.
The question is usually asked as though there is a national answer. There is not, because buying is local and the costs of getting it wrong are personal. What we can do is show the figures rather than the opinion.
The three questions that actually decide it
- How long will you stay? Buying and selling costs a large sum in fees and taxes, and a short stay rarely recovers it whatever prices do. Under three years, the sums usually favour renting.
- Does the payment work in a bad month, not a good one? Principal, interest, taxes, insurance and any association dues, against your income after everything else, with the house's own maintenance budgeted rather than hoped for.
- Is your part of the picture stable? A secure income and cash left over after closing matter more to how a purchase turns out than the month you bought in.
What the market signals mean
Days on market says how much time you get to decide. A rising figure means less competition and more room to negotiate, which is a buyer's market in the only sense that matters day to day.
The share of listings that have cut their price says how many sellers have already accepted that their first number was wrong. It is the most useful single figure for a buyer, because it is where the negotiation starts.
Inventory says how much choice you have. Rates matter too, and they matter for the payment rather than the price: a rate can be refinanced later, a price cannot be renegotiated after closing.
Questions people ask
Should I wait for house prices to drop?
Timing a market is difficult for professionals and is not the lever an individual buyer has. The levers you do have are how long you stay, what you pay relative to nearby sales, and whether the payment is comfortable.
Is it better to buy when rates are high?
A high rate raises the payment but usually comes with less competition and more room on price. A rate can be refinanced if rates fall; a price paid in a bidding war cannot be renegotiated afterwards.
How do I know if it is a buyer's market?
Three figures: homes are sitting longer, more of them have cut their price, and there is more for sale than there was. When all three move the same way, the market has shifted.